Treasury futures have continued to rise in the past week. Yesterday, after the release of economic data in August, Treasury futures rose sharply across the board. The 5-year bond futures contract TF1712 rose 0.19% to 97.73; the 10-year bond futures contract T1712 rose 0.41% to 95.39, and the biggest increase since June 19. In addition, the inter-bank cash yields have fallen sharply. The yield of the National Open Active Bond 170210, which has a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years, fell by 3.75 basis points to 4.3025%. The yield of the National Bond Active Bonds 170010 with a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years fell by 4.60 basis points to 3.6000. %. Market participants believe that the macro data in August was less than expected, and the central bank’s open market operation was superimposed on the day, boosting the sentiment of the bond market.
A number of data in August fell further, lower than market expectations. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of industry, investment and consumption declined in August. Among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year, the former value increased by 6.4%, and is expected to increase by 6.5%, the lowest since December last year; The total retail sales of consumer goods was 303.3 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 10.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 10.5%. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 394.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and the growth rate was from January to July. Falling 0.5 percentage points.
China Merchants Bank 600036, senior analyst of the asset management department Liu Dongliang said: "The data in August further confirmed the downward trend, regardless of investment, infrastructure, consumption, etc., although there may be short-term disturbance factors, subsequent data may be repeated, but the total demand turning point It has already come to the fore, the overall downward trend of the economy has been established, and the downward pressure may further increase after the fourth quarter."
On the same day, the price of funds in the inter-bank and exchange repo market was mixed. The exchange repo price was mostly green, and the inter-bank pledged repo rate was mostly up. The 1-day variety rose 6.13 basis points to 2.6925%. The days of the variety rose 8.38 basis points to 2.1099%; Shibor Shanghai interbank interest rate) short-term varieties prices rose, overnight varieties rose 3.10 basis points reported 2.681%, 7-day varieties rose 1.83 basis points reported 2.8239%.
Although there is no obvious tension in the recent liquidity, considering the tax period, government bond issuance and other factors, after a continuous net return for several consecutive days, the central bank will put a net investment of 100 billion yuan on the day to protect the cross-season liquidity. The meaning is obvious. In September, there were multiple pressures from MPA (macro-prudential assessment system) assessment and inter-bank deposit receipt expiration. In the early period, MLF (interim loan lending) was resumed, and 28-day reverse repurchase was restarted, indicating that the central bank is releasing the stabilization signal. In September, the funds Fabric was worry-free.
Liu Dongliang said that under the circumstance of the 19th National Congress, it is expected that monetary policy and regulatory policies will not exceed expectations in the short term. The economic downturn and the stable steering will have opened the bond market trading window. In addition, if the RMB recently appreciates significantly The foreign exchange account will supplement the base currency. In the short term, the restrictive role of funds in the face of the bond market will tend to be weakened. The 10-year government bond interest rate has a downside of 20 basis points.
China Merchants Securities 600,999, the chief bond analyst Xu Hanfei said that the current liquidity situation is only slightly improved, there is no obvious signs of easing. Before the meeting has been held, the central bank will not easily change the policy tone and release the signal of “tight†margin. It prefers to “passively loose†and “will not take the initiative to tightenâ€.
(Editor: Yue Right)
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