[Wang's watch period]: Crude oil staged a big diving market! The rebound continues to be short!
API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 5.32 million barrels, and oil prices under pressure to expand and fall. Beijing time on March 28, the data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the US crude oil inventories increased by 5.321 million barrels in the week ended March 23, It is expected to increase by 420,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.799 million barrels, which is expected to be reduced by 1.987 million barrels. Refined oil inventories fell by 2.238 million barrels, which is expected to be reduced by 1.53 million barrels. After the data was released, oil prices fell short-term. At present, the US oil reported 64.69 US dollars / barrel, down 1.33%. Cloth oil reported 69.57 US dollars / barrel, down 0.79%. Chinese crude oil futures followed the decline. In the fundamentals, Saudi Energy Minister Falih said on Thursday that OPEC members will need to continue to cooperate with non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia to control global crude oil supply in 2019, thus ensuring that global crude oil inventories will fall to the target level. Commercial oil inventories in developed economies are compared with the seven-year average rather than five years. It is expected that by the end of 2018, relevant cooperation programs or mechanisms will be introduced to continue to guarantee the balance of global crude oil supply and demand in 2019; US crude oil production continues to record high, last week in the United States. Domestic crude oil production increased by 26,000 barrels to 10.407 million barrels per day, marking a record high for the fourth consecutive week. The US online oil rigs have grown to the highest level in three years, and the number of active oil drills in the US has increased from 4 to 804.
[Operational strategy]: Crude oil 1809 contract opened slightly after the opening of the market on Wednesday, the daily line closed the big Yinxian, the disk analysis of the outer disk of crude oil was affected by the large increase in inventory, there was a sharp diving, the crude oil futures once dipped nearly 20 points, the king It is expected that the crude oil futures will start a new round of corrections. The night and Thursday's Kings suggest that crude oil futures will remain bearish. The intraday rebound will be high and the opportunity will be more than one.
[Wang's watch period]: The recent trend of threaded hot-rolled iron ore is accurate!
Spot, yesterday, Tangshan billet ex-factory price rose 30 yuan / ton to 3330 yuan / ton, hot-rolled spot prices rose and fell, Shanghai fell 20 yuan / ton to 3750 yuan / ton, Tianjin rose 60 yuan / ton to 3770 yuan / ton, the spot price of three-level rebar in various places has risen steadily, Shanghai rose 50 yuan / ton to 3560 yuan / ton, Tianjin rose 60 yuan / ton to 3760 yuan / ton. In the spot market, prices in all regions of the country rose slightly. HRB40020mm national price was 3762 yuan/ton, and Shanghai price was 3560 yuan/ton. The iron ore general-purpose index rose by a large margin and is currently at $63.05. As for the ferroalloys, as of March 27, most of the ferrosilicon 75# market price is 6200-6500 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of silico-manganese in the main producing area is maintained at 8150-8250 yuan / ton. In the news, a few days ago, Shandong Coal Industry Bureau was informed that with the consent of the provincial government, the target of coal de-capacity in 2018 and the list of coal mines were announced. The target of coal de-capacity this year is 4.65 million tons, involving provincial coal enterprises and municipalities. 10 coal mines.
[Operational strategy]: The threaded steel ore hot coil rebounded again on Wednesday, and the daily line closed the small Yinxian line of the long shadow line. Yesterday, it was mentioned that “the night plate and the king of Wednesday suggested that the black plate should continue to keep the bottom of the line and do more ideas. The short-term operation "King's recent grasp of the trend of threaded iron ore can be described as accurate, the night plate and the king on Thursday suggested that the thread iron ore will continue to maintain the bottom of the idea, the main intention of the main iron pull is obvious, the empty single do not enter, the intraday low Participate in multiple orders.
[Wang's watch period]: Coking coal coke plummeted to continue to bottom out, the bottom of the plate can participate in the rebound more than a single!
In terms of spot, yesterday Rizhao Port 600017, the price of the first-class metallurgical coke fell 100 yuan / ton to 1950 yuan / ton, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke price fell 50 yuan / ton to 1835 yuan / ton. The price of volatile coking coal in Australia remained at US$199/ton, which was converted into RMB1505/ton. Recently, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, the sales situation was not good, while the inventory of downstream steel mills remained at a high level, the purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the spot price of coke was under pressure. Recently, steel prices continue to decline, steel mill profits have narrowed, and environmental protection has a certain impact on coal coke demand. It is reported that the blast furnace will continue to limit production on April 1st, and this bad news has suppressed the coke to hit a new low in this round. After the profit of the independent coking enterprises decreased, the coking coal continued to be destocked, and the spot price of imported coking coal continued to fall. The domestic coking coal market is temporarily stable. Coal mines gradually resumed supply, coupled with the recent weakening of the coke market, coking enterprises have reduced enthusiasm for coking coal procurement, and the coking coal market has weakened. The price of low-sulfur primary coke in some regions has been lowered by RMB 20/ton. Upstream coke enterprises are not well-sold, sales pressure is not reduced, the resumption of production of downstream steel mills is still unclear, demand is not released, steel profits are falling, and steel mills are still under pressure.
[Operational strategy]: Coke coking coal once again staged a plunge on Wednesday, and the daily line closed the big Yinxian. Disk analysis This position double focus has fallen near the bottom, the space below is not large, the front support dense area is near, the king will judge the position of double focus will rebound, the night plate and Thursday recommended double focus bottom to participate in more than one, expected intraday Received support will have a wave of rebounding offensive, short-term participation.
[Wang's watch period]: Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum are under great pressure, and they are short-selling ideas!
The United States intends to start legal restrictions on China's investment in the United States, technology stocks plummeted, London stocks increased by more than 30,000 tons, China's imports continued to decline year-on-year, the yuan rose, there is no sign of rising in the short term, positions are still at a high level, last week, domestic stocks continue Increase, the opening of the import window in the previous period is reasonable to attract imported copper to the goods. Copper continues to fluctuate weakly. In the fundamental market, domestic and international spot pressures have increased, the exchange rate is high, the long-term rise is maintained, and the monthly difference is profitable. Domestic spot discount, London spot posted 32 dollars. The comex management fund continued to reduce its net long position last week. The managed fund's net long position was 18,675, minus 8774, and the non-commercial net was 30,861, minus 8774. The net long positions in the international market continued to decrease, and the previous bullish enthusiasm subsided. Currently, it is the strongest time for the peak season. If the spot price is difficult to improve, Sino-US trade negotiations are the focus of the later market. The trade war will affect the long-term consumption of copper. If the peak season of consumption is not as good as expected, it is expected that the short-term off-exchange funds will not be judged to be aggressive, so the price is likely to be further adjusted downward.
[Operational strategy]: Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel collectively declined slightly on Wednesday. The recent trend of the colored plate is repetitive. The overall trend of the short-selling trend is obvious. The king suggested that the colored plate should maintain the short-selling idea in the near future. The night plate and the king recommended the colored plate on Thursday. After the high, more than a single caution, can be decisive to buy empty orders, the colored plate collective pressure is obvious, the intraday rebound rebound.
[Wang's watch period]: Rubber rebound fruit is empty!
As of the end of last week: the exchange warehouse receipts 409,220 (+6390), the exchange's total inventory of 439,942 (+1694). Raw materials: green film 44.48 (-0.02) cup rubber 34.5 (0, glue 44 (-0.5), tobacco sheet 48.5 (-0.5).
As of March 19, the total inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 244,300 tons (-0.99) as of March 23, the domestic steel tire operating rate was 72.46% (+0.06%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 72% (0). Yesterday, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis difference has expanded. It is still the pattern of futures premium spot. At the same time, high inventory has not improved, making the price pressure still exist. At present, long and short starts to specialize in the 1809 contract, and the 1805 contract begins to lighten up. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas began to cut, Yunnan processing plants also began production, affected by the price, the purchase price of raw materials is lower, the latest glue price is 8550 yuan / ton, the price of synthetic products is less than 10,000 yuan / ton, the price of late attention Continue to decline the impact on the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. In view of the loose supply and demand pattern of rubber in 2018, the trade war time has made the downstream demand worse, and the imbalance between supply and demand is more obvious. Therefore, Hujiao will continue to repair the market in the later period.
[Operational strategy]: The rubber 1805 contract bottomed out on Wednesday, and the disk analysis showed that the rubber was suppressed by the bears after experiencing a large-scale decline! At night and the king on Thursday, it is recommended to go high and short-selling ideas. In the intraday rebound, you can buy an empty order. In short-term thinking, the rubber will continue to adjust the range in a short period of time.
[Wang's watch period]: Plastic pp, pvc affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the weakness continues!
On March 27, the domestic ex-factory price of Sinopec Huadong was 8,750 yuan/ton, and the low-end market price of East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from yesterday. The terminal purchase increased yesterday, and the price rebounded slightly; the monomer price of propylene monomer was 7,400 yuan/ton, Shandong Powder 8150 yuan / ton, East China powder 8300, monomer price is supported, propylene - powder support variable; external disk, March 27 CFR Far East 1185 US dollars / ton, equivalent to the RMB duty-paid price of 9,500 yuan / ton, spot Upside down 1100. Outside the US Gulf, Southeast Asia, CFR China prices are relatively strong, I heard that some of the market can be exported, the price structure is slightly supported.
From the perspective of supply and demand, yesterday's PP unit inspection rate was 8.23%, the drawing ratio was 35.33%, and the drawing production ratio was lower than the previous period. Regarding the new installations, we are concerned about the progress of the production of the China Sea Shell. In terms of stock equipment, Ningmei’s 300,000-ton unit was temporarily parked. Yesterday, Sichuan Petrochemical’s 450,000-ton installation and Maoming Petrochemical’s 300,000-ton unit were temporarily repaired due to failure. Sichuan Petrochemical re-driving after temporary parking, it is expected to carry out a planned overhaul on No. 4.8. The Shenhua Yulin installation is expected to begin maintenance on the 4.2th. Due to the lowering of the drawing ratio, the Sichuan Petrochemical and Shenhua Yulin installations have the factors of maintenance and other factors, and the price is further weakened.
[Operational strategy]: Under the influence of the sharp drop in crude oil, the overall performance of chemical products was sluggish, and the three countries continued to fall down without exception. The disk analysis will continue to be under pressure in the atmosphere of crude oil, and plastic pp and pvc will continue to be under pressure. If the operation is done, the king recommends that the three players open the market and rebound after the high, and then take the opportunity to short the market. In the intraday, it is recommended to pull the high and then take the opportunity to participate in the short-term operation.
[King's watch period]: PTA continues to be short!
Cost: Asia CFR reported 948 (-1) overnight, spot processing fees narrowed to 812, April CFR reported 948, May CFR reported 947. Installation: A set of PTA plants with an annual output of 1.2 million tons will be shut down for maintenance in early May. The inspection time is about 25 days. A set of PTA units with an annual output of 700,000 tons in East China was unexpectedly short-scheduled on Saturday. It is expected to start driving in mid-week or the second half of this week. Downstream: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn production and sales partially rebounded, mainly POY, and the average estimate around 3:30 pm is about 180%. After the replenishment of the downstream yarn mill last week, there are more wait-and-see attitudes, and the transaction is just the main one. The production and sales are mostly 60-100%. The trade war entered a stalemate stage, worries about the shrinking of terminal clothing exports and overnight oil price adjustments put pressure on PTA futures prices. The spot market volume increased slightly, and the mainstream spot talks were in Pingshui. In terms of fundamentals, the seasonal weaving season of terminal weaving in April-May, the high start-up of polyester and the high power of the new equipment are sufficient, and the PTA's own equipment maintenance is expected to be tightly balanced under the supply and demand side.
[Operational strategy]: pta rushed back and fell, the internal group entered the market with a high price yesterday, and the market was perfectly profitable. On the face of the disk, pta continued to fluctuate downwards in the near future, and the overall weak, near the daily line near the daily pressure, the market is weak. The breakthrough will also fall back, the king is expected to fall today and Thursday, and continue to operate empty orders.
[Wang's watch period]: Methanol asphalt pressure rebounded short!
Spot: Yesterday, the domestic port market was stable and small, and the spot was slightly down by the futures. Specifically, Taicang 2890 (-40) yuan / ton, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Southwest, the spot prices are 2690 (+0), 2700 (+0), 2500 (+0) and 2650 (+0) Yuan/ton; the price of deliverables is 2830~3120 yuan/ton. The base difference of East China is 206, which is 26 lower than yesterday, and the lowest delivery base is 132.
Inside and outside price difference: On March 27th, CFR China price was US$368/ton, down US$9/ton from yesterday. The spot RMB theoretical import profit and loss is -30 yuan / ton (including 50 ports of miscellaneous fees), plus the tax-paid profit is -110 yuan / ton. Emerging demand: In terms of disk processing fee, PP-3*MA disk surface 05 and spot processing fee are 557 and -205 yuan/ton respectively, and MTO spot profit is greatly narrowed. On the whole, yesterday, the methanol port inventory was released at 640,100 tons. It was basically the same as last week; the circulating inventory was 132,600 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons. On the supply and demand side, the internal disk started high, the natural gas methanol plant resumed production, and the outer disk was also maintained at a high level. The internal and external disk spring maintenance plans were gradually announced, and the maintenance will be gradually carried out from late March, so that the market mentality has improved. On the demand side, the traditional demand is gradually restored, and the need to replenish the warehouse is maintained. MTO installations Heyuan and Sylvan have maintenance plans from April to May, and it is recommended to pay attention.
[Operational strategy]: Asphalt methanol fell back today. On the surface of the disk, the asphalt methanol continued to fall after the high level in the early stage. This is in line with the author's expectation. The internal group is frequently used in empty batches. The analysis of the king, the asphalt methanol is under pressure in the early stage, currently The position has received some support, and the callback is almost nearing the end, but the counterattack still needs to be brewed. Today's night and Thursday are down, and the operation rebounds and short-term intervention.
[Wang's watch period]: Beans and vegetables continue to go short!
The planting intention report and the quarterly inventory report will be released on March 29. The market expects soybean acreage to exceed 91.1 million acres, and stocks as of March 1 will remain at record highs due to continuous harvest. In addition, although Argentina reduced production, Agroconsult raised its Brazilian production estimate to 118.9 million tons. The US soybeans will continue to be weak for the time being, with a focus on tomorrow's planting intention report. Domestically, the number of imported soybeans was lower in February-March, but the number of imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong increased steadily after April. Last week, due to the overhaul of some oil plants, the operating rate dropped slightly to 48.36%. This week, it is expected that some oil plants will be out of stock. Last week, Sino-US trade concerns led to weak internal strength and long-term basis. The average daily turnover of soybean meal increased from 98,600 tons to 181,500 tons. As of March 23, the stock of soybean meal in oil plants dropped from 800,000 tons to 790,000. Ton.
[Operational strategy]: Beans and leeks rushed back today, and the internal group of empty slabs continued to harvest. On the face of the disk, the two sides were weak overall. After the continuous rebound in the previous period, they were under pressure and fell below the monthly line. The king analyzed that the current position of the two is vulnerable to short-selling. It is predicted that the night and Thursday will continue to fall back. Focus on the high position.
[Wang's watch period]: Soybean palm oil will continue to fall back!
In March, the output increased sharply. In March, the weather in Southeast Asia began to decrease, which was not a big threat to the palm oil harvesting. The weather was generally favorable. The agency’s production forecast for March was estimated to increase by 36% in the previous 20 days. Around %, the late high probability horse will also be under pressure. Domestic oils are weak and volatile. The soybean oil that was previously worried about the trade war has more corrections. The stage speculation is difficult to sustain, and the probability of trade conflict will still be resolved peacefully. Palm oil's recent poor import profits have supported the recent months. The reason for the strong domestic vegetable oil in the early stage was that the inland vegetable oil local national reserve faced the problem of entering the wheel before April. Because of the general bearishness of the market outlook, the willingness to replenish the library was not strong. The recent replenishment of the reservoir caused frequent shipments from the coastal to the inland. The difference is strong, but with the completion of the replenishment, the base difference is hard to rise any more, and the amount of imported vegetable oil is still relatively high. Later, with the large amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the second quarter, the overall oil pressure still exists.
[Operational strategy]: Soybean oil palm oil has been slightly re-adjusted today. The internal group recently harvested the oil and fats in a row. On the plate, the oils were weak in the near future. Today, they are simultaneously adjusted back to the daily line. The king analyzed that the space on both sides of the oil was compressed. It is difficult to get out of the obvious band, and the weak shock will continue. It is predicted that today's night and Thursday will fall back, and the high-level focus will follow the empty list.
[Wang's watch period]: Cotton will continue to be weak and shocked!
Last week, there was only scattered rainfall in the Texas Plateau, and only a quarter of the area had less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall. The weekend's high temperatures and fires caused soil moisture to drop to the lowest in a decade. Domestically, Zheng Cotton A slight decline, the final cotton main contract 1809 closed at 15,480 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, the main cotton yarn futures closed at 23,120 yuan / ton, up 85 yuan / ton. In terms of reserve cotton rotation, 30,000 tons were rotated on the 2nd day of this week, the actual turnover was 17,301 tons, the turnover rate was 57.67%, and the average transaction price was 14,245 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. The output is 30,000 tons, including 12,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton. Spot prices fell, CCIndex3128B reported 15,636 yuan / ton, down 11 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. FCIndexM arrived at HK$91.44 cents/lb, unchanged. The downstream yarn is stable. The price index of 32 carded yarns was 23,070 yuan / ton, and the price index of 40 combed yarns was 26,450 yuan / ton.
[Operational strategy]: Cotton is going down today, and the internal group nights are decisively entering the market. Today, it is perfect for profit, and the air singles are profitable frequently. On the plate, the multiple moving averages above the cotton are glued down. The space below the current position is limited, the pressure on the top is dense, the space on both sides is compressed, and the weaker shock will continue in the near future. Today's night and Thursday continue to be empty.
[The king sees the period]: The white sugar falls back slightly, the empty single does not chase, and the bottom is long!
Spot: Liuzhou middleman new sugar offer 5800-5840, the price is unchanged from the previous day, the new sugar offer remains unchanged; Nanning middlemen new sugar offer is 5860-6010, unchanged from the previous day's offer, the overall market transactions are general. As the progress of the squeeze is accelerated, the willingness to price is higher than before, and the late sugar price is mainly influenced by the national policy and the weather in the producing area will become the dominant factor. On the spot side, prices have remained steady and some have increased slightly. With the speed of the squeeze, the overall sugar factory's financial pressure is not large, the willingness to price is higher than before. However, the overall fundamental lack of bullish boost is expected to remain dominated by weakness.
[Operational strategy]: White sugar fell slightly on Wednesday, and the daily line reported a small Yinxian line. The disk surface analysis of this position is more obvious. The king suggested that the night plate and the sugar on Thursday should continue to explore the bottom, and the bottom of the plate is more than one single entry. The opportunity is expected to be affected by the support, and there will be a wave of white sugar after the bottom.
(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)
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